But he said no matter who wins the primary, “it’s likely that you’re going to go from one D to three Ds” in the area. He has a primary opponent in Susquehanna Township Commissioner Justin Fleming, and other Democrats may still jump in the race. A third compact seat anchored in relatively populous, liberal suburban precincts will also be safe for Democrats. Now, Harrisburg is divided into two seats, both of which include some of the nearby suburbs. The new state House map upends that dynamic. Those suburban districts look moderate and ripe for party flips on paper, but all of them have been steadily held by Republicans since at least the 1960s. Since 2012, the area has been drawn with Harrisburg as a single, very blue district, with its liberal suburbs wrapped into bigger districts that stretch into more conservative communities farther from the city. That political shift never translated to more seats for Democrats, though.
Like many of Pennsylvania’s smallish cities, Harrisburg is solidly blue, with suburbs that have also gotten more liberal over the last decade. To highlight the ways these maps can affect towns, elected officials, and voters on the local level, WHYY took a closer look at two small parts of the map: Harrisburg and its blue-shifting suburbs, and moderate Bucks County. The effects of those changes are straightforward on a statewide level: Democrats will probably pick up more House seats - though likely not enough to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans this year - and will have relatively more power in the legislature for the next decade.īut zoom down to individual counties and municipalities, and the conversation about what exactly this map will do grows much more complicated. The map also makes districts, on average, less likely to swing between parties. The latest round of legislative redistricting hit Pennsylvania’s Republican-controlled House of Representatives like an earthquake, and stands to make Democrats more electorally competitive than they have been in at least two decades. WHYY thanks our sponsors - become a WHYY sponsorĮpstein’s region isn’t the only one seeing big changes.